Who won the war between India and Pakistan in 2025?

 

Who Won the India–Pakistan War of 2025?

Background

On April 26, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir killed 26 people. In response, India launched Operation Sandor on May 7, carrying out missile and drone strikes on Pakistani territory. Pakistan retaliated with military actions of its own, including Operation Bunyān al-Marsus. 

Four Days of Conflict and a Ceasefire

The crisis lasted four days (May 7–10, 2025). On May 10, the U.S. mediated a ceasefire, preventing further escalation into a full-scale war.

Both Sides Claimed Victory

Soon after the ceasefire:

• India highlighted its military precision and ability to strike key targets.

• Pakistan emphasized its defensive strength and claimed to have downed Indian aircraft.

Both governments presented themselves as victors to their domestic audiences.

Analytical Perspective

• Military Advantage – India: Analysts suggest that India demonstrated greater military effectiveness by targeting Pakistani defense systems and terror-linked sites. 

• Narrative Disadvantage – India: Despite its military edge, India struggled to fully control the international narrative. As analyst Brahma Chellaney noted, “India won the war but lost the narrative.” 

India’s Advantages

1. Superior Military Size and Budget

India’s armed forces outnumber Pakistan’s more than two-to-one. Its defense budget is nearly nine times larger, providing significant resources for modernization, manpower, and sustained operations.

2. Advanced Equipment and Firepower

• Air Power: India fields modern fighter jets such as Rafales and Su-30 MKIs, far outmatching Pakistan’s fleet.

• Naval Superiority: With two aircraft carriers, a larger submarine fleet, and advanced warships, India has a clear maritime advantage.

• Armored Strength: India maintains a superior number of tanks, artillery systems, and armored vehicles, enabling dominance in ground warfare.

3. Technological Sophistication

India operates advanced missile defense systems, satellite-based surveillance, and indigenous weapons programs that provide a technological edge over Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Strengths and Risks

1. Combat Experience

Pakistan’s military has extensive battlefield experience in counterinsurgency and asymmetric warfare. This provides adaptability and resilience that could challenge India in certain scenarios.

2. Nuclear Deterrent

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is its ultimate shield. It prevents India from pursuing total dominance, as any large-scale war could escalate into nuclear exchange — with catastrophic consequences for the region and beyond.

3. Geographical Vulnerabilities

India’s densely populated cities and economic hubs lie close to potential conflict zones, making them highly vulnerable. Even limited strikes could inflict major political and economic costs on India.

The Outcome of a Conflict

Conventional War: Likely Indian Victory

In a conventional, sustained war, India’s overwhelming superiority in numbers, resources, and technology would likely lead to a decisive victory.

Nuclear Escalation: A Regional Catastrophe

Both sides possess nuclear weapons, meaning even a limited war could spiral into a nuclear exchange. This possibility makes any military conflict between the two nations extraordinarily risky.

Psychological and Symbolic Victories

Historically, both India and Pakistan claim victory after clashes, regardless of battlefield realities. Such symbolic wins are vital for domestic unity and political legitimacy.

✅ Summary:

• Cause: Pahalgam attack → India launched strikes → Pakistan retaliated

• Duration: 4 days (May 7–10, 2025)

• Claims: Both declared victory

• Reality: India showed military edge, Pakistan showed resilience

• Final Note: No clear winner, but a dangerous reminder of how close South Asia can come to full-scale war

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